The ICDT (International Display Technology Conference) Business Conference was held at the Sheraton Hotel in Fuzhou.,on the morning of February 18th, Group Counseling (Sigmaintell) global small and medium size display panel senior analyst Ms. Chen Lijuan bring "flexible OLED market development status and trends" wonderful speech.The following is a lecture:
Hello everyone!I share the theme of today's flexible OLED market development status and trends, from three aspects, the industry status, development trends, market opportunities and risks.From the development of mobile terminal panels, with the rigid AMOLED to flexible AMOLED technology upgrades, the industry has formed a flexible AMOLED is the direction of technological development consensus.
In 2016, the global AMOLED shipments than the previous year, an increase of 40%, of which the smart phone is the most important driving force, 2016 AMOLED smart phone shipments of 350 million. Samsung Electronics accounted for the majority of the share, Oppo and Vivo accounted for more than 20%, other brands, including Huawei, millet, Jin Li, Meizu also launched equipped with AMOLED screen, and even flexible AMOLED screen phone.
From the supply side, 2016 AMOLED mobile phone panel main supply from the SDC, accounting for 99%, of which flexible AMOLED panel shipments reached more than 50 million, and the remaining 1%, including Hewlett-Packard, LGD, Weixin, BOE in 2016 to achieve a breakthrough in the shipment 0.
According to our overall AMOLED panel price tracking, 2016 prices remain high, because the screen resources are limited, the vast majority of control in the SDC hands, is a typical seller market.
Next we look at industry trends. This picture shows the penetration of the global AMOLED smartphone. 2016, the world's smart phones about 23% equipped with AMOLED panel, with the panel plant new production line investment is expected 2019, AMOLED panel penetration will exceed the LCD, by 2021, AMOLED smartphone penetration will be as high as 64%.
Terminal product AMOLED growth, can not be separated from the entire supply chain investment. The following figure shows the growth of the global smartphone AMOLED panel capacity. The left is the global AMOLED mobile phone panel capacity growth trend, the right is the flexible AMOLED mobile phone panel capacity growth. The left figure, you can see in 2016 flexible AMOLED in the overall AMOLED production capacity is 14%, in front of just mentioned, Samsung in 2016 more than 50 million pieces of flexible OLED panel shipments. To 2017 Apple mobile phone will join the AMOLED camp, Samsung has more flexibility in the flexible AMOLED, 2017 flexible AMOLED mobile phone panel capacity penetration rate of up to 30%.
Many of China's panel makers are also investing in new AMOLED production lines, with flexible AMOLED up to 65% of total AMOLED capacity by 2020. In the rigid AMOLED, there is no big increase, mainly from the flexible AMOLED. 2017 and 2018 are the fastest two years of flexible AMOLED growth. Of course, this is based on the already determined investment line to calculate, do not rule out the new production line will continue to invest. In 2017, the increase in flexible AMOLED capacity came mainly from SDC. By 2018, China's related production lines were also put into production, and production capacity was almost doubling.
Sub-regional point of view, the global AMOLED smart phone panel growth, 2017, mainly from the SDC. 2018, with the Chengdu BOE 6 generation AMOLED mass production, so that mainland China AMOLED panel production has a landmark growth. To 2019 years later, with China's more and more AMOLED panel line production, China's AMOLED production capacity continues to grow. At the same time, SDC and LGD did not stop the pace of investment. Their capacity has continued to grow from 2018 to 2021. By 2021, Korean AMOLED still accounts for more than half of global production capacity.
From the technical point of view, smart phone panel technology upgrades, mainly around the quality, appearance and function of three aspects. For a long time, mobile phone technology upgrading are micro-innovation. And AMOLED flexible display, to the appearance of the phone to bring more possibilities. 2017, fixed curvature of the side of the curved AMOLED mobile phone will continue to shine. At the same time, it is expected that by 2018, collapsible mobile phone will be mass production.
Throughout the development of the entire flexible AMOLED, Samsung Galaxy Round mobile phone launched in 2013, the curvature is 400R, then do unilateral surface, bilateral surface, 2016 four sides of the surface, the curvature of the 10R up and down. This represents a flexible AMOLED technology upgrade and breakthrough. At the end of 2016, Samsung Electronics in the United States to apply for a patentable folding phone, other manufacturers are constantly in the relevant patents. By the end of 2017, is expected to have a folding mobile phone available to 2018 can be mass production, foldable era officially arrived.
Next to see the third part, the current AMOLED market for China's panel factory is the opportunity and risk coexist. Opportunities, mainly reflected in the market demand and investment environment is very good. Risk, first part of the patent. From the global manufacturers to master the AMOLED patent point of view, Korean SDC and LGD occupy an absolute leading edge. Because the Chinese manufacturers started late, in the patent at a certain disadvantage. Chinese manufacturers, the BOE's largest patent reserves. So the patent barriers are China's panel enterprises face the first battle.
From the equipment point of view, whether it is LCD panel or OLED panel core equipment are Japan, South Korea and Europe and the United States monopoly companies. In the Samsung and LGD's support, the Korean equipment manufacturers in recent years in the OLED deposition and packaging equipment has more and more voice. From the material point of view, according to the world's top seven OLED material suppliers operating results, the upstream material supply is basically the United States, South Korea, Japan and Germany monopoly, China OLED materials business in the initial stage.
Because the Chinese panel factory started late, 2016 and Hewlett-Packard to achieve 5.5FHD AMOLED mobile phone panel production, PPI reached 400, this year, China's panel factory will continue to mass production 5.5FHD products. But we see that from the yield, reliability, etc., with the Korean factory or a certain gap. Especially to the flexible AMOLED, compared to rigid AMOLED, mainly from the substrate from the rigid glass into a flexible PI material, the package is packaged with a thin film. Is now a fixed curvature, followed by a folding panel, we have a longer distance to catch up. Because folding panels require flexible material for all materials, especially the Cover Window, because it has both a protective function and a foldable feature, its folding life and material reliability requirements are high. Although the current domestic rigid AMOLED has begun mass production, flexible products, Chinese manufacturers will still encounter more challenges.
With an old Chinese to sum up, "good work, we must first of its profits." In the current market background, we call on the industry, one is to understand the industrial situation, according to market development and timely adjustment of investment pace; the second aspect, although now AMOLED rapid development, but still continue to maintain the competitiveness of LCD, Quasi-AMOLED market positioning; third, not only to invest in AMOLED panel line, but also to increase the entire OLED industry chain improvement and cultivation, pay attention to materials, equipment and technology common development, the domestic AMOLED industry chain as a whole developed.